Recycled Scrap Metal Market Forecast Outlook 2025–2035
The global recycled scrap metal market is valued at
USD 75.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach
USD 149.9 billion by 2035, expanding at a
CAGR of 7.1%. This growth trajectory is strongly linked to
the rising adoption of AI-powered recycling technologies and
the increasing demand for sustainable raw materials across
construction, automotive, and
consumer electronics sectors.
AI as a Catalyst in Scrap Metal Recycling
Artificial intelligence is transforming the recycled scrap metal market by streamlining operations, improving recovery efficiency, and reducing costs:
- Smart Sorting & Segregation: Companies like Nucor Corporation are deploying AI-based scrap segregation and zero-discharge recycling systems, ensuring better yield rates and compliance with environmental standards.
- Blockchain & Traceability: Firms such as Sims Limited are investing in AI + blockchain enabled certification systems to address contamination risks and provide end usersparticularly in high-end alloy industries with full transparency.
- Predictive Maintenance & Process Optimization: Machine learning algorithms in shredding and smelting facilities enable predictive maintenance, minimizing downtime while enhancing throughput.
These advancements ensure greater uniformity of recycled feedstock, reinforcing industry trust and enabling large-scale industrial use.
Market Forecasting: Sectoral Growth Drivers
Ferrous Metals
- Estimated to command 72.5% of total market share by 2035, driven by heavy use in construction, transportation, and industrial machinery.
- AI-enhanced supply chain monitoring is reducing raw material volatility and strengthening long-term growth.
- CAGR: 6.8% (2025–2035).
Non-Ferrous Metals (Aluminum, Copper, Lead)
- Growth tied to aerospace, EV production, and renewable energy infrastructure.
- AI forecasting models suggest aluminum demand will rise steadily due to lightweighting in EV manufacturing, while copper will see strong adoption in smart grids and electronics.
Building & Construction
- Forecast to lead with 15.6% market share by 2035 at a CAGR of 6.4%.
- AI models project demand surging in green building projects and prefabricated infrastructure, especially in emerging economies.
Table: Semi-Annual Market Forecast Updates
AI-based Semi-Annual Market Forecast Updates
| Period |
CAGR |
Insights |
| H1 2024–2034 |
6.1% |
Stable early cycle growth, tempered by raw material volatility. |
| H2 2024–2034 |
7.5% |
AI-driven predictive analytics show stronger recovery in demand. |
| H1 2025–2035 |
6.5% |
Early expansion supported by AI-optimized collection systems. |
| H2 2025–2035 |
7.7% |
Elevated growth as AI-powered infrastructure scaling peaks. |
AI-enhanced forecasting models indicate higher H2 performance, aligning with industrial cycles and investment surges in recycling infrastructure.
Regional Outlook Through AI Forecasting
- USA (CAGR 6.5%) AIenhanced recycling facilities by Sims Metal and Commercial Metals Company are improving recovery yields. Forecast models suggest steady demand from EV and construction sectors.
- China (CAGR 6.9%) Forecasting indicates dominance in e waste metal recycling, driven by urbanization and large-scale steel production. AI is applied to logistics optimization and e waste dismantling.
- India (CAGR 7.6%) AI-based demand models show strong growth in construction and modular housing projects.
- Germany & UK (CAGR 7.9%) Advanced recycling technologies supported by stringent EU environmental frameworks and digital certification systems.
Conclusion:
The recycled scrap metal market is set for strong growth from 2025 to 2035, fueled by AI-driven recycling technologies, rising demand for sustainable materials, and supportive government policies. Ferrous metals lead in volume, while non-ferrous metals drive innovation in high-tech industries. AI-enabled sorting, traceability, and predictive maintenance are enhancing efficiency and reliability, positioning the industry for sustainable, long-term expansion.
Source:
FMI
